A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and triggered chaos, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the political, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in academia but scarcely any politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer supports unification or the existing arrangement. Each writes two pieces that seek impartiality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and social statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, duties, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate claim they support unification but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will eventually be defeated but both parties has got important lessons to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
