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Voting has commenced for parliamentary elections in Holland, with current polling data indicating that the anti-immigration firebrand Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) may repeat their emerge victorious, although experts believe PVV is unlikely of joining the future coalition.

Polling Trends and Election Dynamics

Wilders' party, which in the last election pulled off a surprise first-place finish and formed a four-party right-leaning government that lasted barely a year, is now marginally ahead in surveys and is projected to win between 24 to 28 MPs in the 150-member house of representatives.

Nevertheless, the far-right party's support has dipped since the previous election, when it won 37 parliamentary seats. All major parties have stated they will not forming a government with the PVV leader, who precipitated the collapse of the outgoing coalition in June amid disagreements concerning his radical anti-refugee proposals.

Key Contenders and Projections

Following a campaign focused on topics such as migration, healthcare costs, and the country's severe housing crisis, the centre-left Green Left/Labour party alliance, headed by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is placed a close second, projected to win between 22 to 26 seats.

Also performing well is the liberal-progressive D66, predicted to boost its representation nearly fivefold to 21 to 25 seats, while the centre-right CDA is anticipated to more than double its seat tally to between 18 and 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – which included the Freedom Party, VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all forecast to see their representation reduced, with several experiencing significant losses.

Voting Process and Fragmentation

In the Netherlands' electoral system, gaining just 0.67% of the vote earns a party one MP. Among the two dozen political groups participating in the vote – which include senior-focused parties, for youth, for animals, for a universal basic income, and for sport – as many as 16 could enter the legislature.

This high degree of fragmentation means that no one party is expected to win a majority, and the Netherlands has been ruled by coalitions – typically composed of several groups in the last few administrations – for more than a century.

Post-Election Scenarios

Wilders has stated that "the democratic process would end" in the Netherlands if the his party ends up as the biggest group yet is excluded from power. However, opponents and experts say that winning the most seats does not guarantee government participation and that any governing alliance with a majority is a democratic outcome.

Although the election result is hard to predict and government negotiations could take months, political observers suggest that following the most extreme government in its recent history, the next Dutch cabinet is likely to be a broad-based coalition headed by either the centre-left or moderate right.

Election Day Details

Voting locations, including those in the miniature city Madurodam in the capital and the Anne Frank museum in Amsterdam, opened at 7:30 AM (6:30 GMT) and will conclude at 9pm. A usually accurate post-voting survey is expected soon after closing time.

After the vote, an official negotiator will test possible coalitions that could secure enough support in parliament. Prospective coalition members will then negotiate an agreement for the next four years and must undergo a vote of confidence in the house before assuming power.