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Just 48 hours before the New York mayoral election, Michael Lange made a bold electoral prediction – not just who would win citywide, and block by block. Lange, an expert in elections who grew up in the city, has spent over a decade in progressive politics and has become a kind of local celebrity recently for his thorough analyses into city data and polling.

He released his highly detailed forecast map – which correctly forecast that the progressive candidate would win while failed to predict the independent candidate’s solid showing – on his newsletter, the Narrative War. He has a flair for witty coinages. He highlighted, for instance, the split between the progressive stronghold, stretching from one neighborhood to another area to Astoria, where he predicted (accurately) that the left-wing candidate would triumph by huge margins, and the “capitalist corridor” on Manhattan’s Upper East and Upper West Sides. There, “the Free Press and Wall Street Journal outrank the New York Times” in audience and most voters leaned toward the independent, who ran as a moderate alternative.

Voting Day Trends and Surprises

How was your election night?

I had to do that because they were adding around 200,000 votes into the system frequently! I felt a little nervous at the beginning: The candidate was ahead the initial ballots by 12 points, but there were large groups of votes added later and his lead went from 12 to 8%. It was concerning.

Understand, it was possible in which election day turned out kind of poorly for Mamdani, where Cuomo would have basically doubling his votes from the earlier contest. But the winner added half a million supporters to his initial base, and that’s a huge reason why he succeeded. He campaigned and massively expanded his support from the primary.

Expanding Support

Where did Mamdani get those extra votes from?

He built the alliance that progressives always wanted to build: diverse racially, it’s young, it’s renters and individuals squeezed by affordability. He improved considerably with Black and Hispanic voters, everyday New Yorkers, relative to the primary. Plus he boosted his base of liberal progressives, young leftists, and Muslims and south Asians. He couldn’t have won without expanding his appeal.

He built the alliance that progressives always wanted to build: multiracial, youthful, renters and residents squeezed by affordability

There were also some Trump/Mamdani voters – is that a big trend?

It’s definitely a genuine phenomenon, limited to Hispanic laborers, Asian communities and Muslims. Voters in ethnic enclaves that supported Trump previously went for Zohran this year. But it’s not that he was gaining white working-class voters and Trump loyalists.

Voter Participation and Effects

A major development of the election was the record turnout. Who did that help?

Each candidate. Participation was significantly higher than I had expected. I thought it could go over 2 million, but it’s closer to 2.3 million – that is a huge number of participants. Existed a decent opposition group, who were motivated, but his supporters was equally driven, and that was enough to secure victory.

You forecasted he’d get over half the ballots. Is he likely for that?

Right now it appears he’s favored to get over 50%. He has 50.4% but there’s still around 200,000 votes left to report as of Wednesday morning. So I don’t think certain, but I believe probable, and I hope he achieves it because then no one can say the Republican was a disruptor.

GOP Decline

The GOP candidate, the Republican candidate, was another surprise. His vote plummeted.

He lost any district in any borough. Including Tottenville in Staten Island, similar to an 88% Trump neighborhood. That truly was unexpected. Cuomo kept very white areas, very wealthy areas and very religiously Jewish areas, and plus gained all of these Republicans on the island with a strong turnout. I think there was a lot of strategic balloting by GOP voters. They were doing it before Trump tweeted his support for the candidate, but that definitely helped. It could have even turned the tide unless Mamdani’s coalition failed to expand.

The “Commie Corridor”

What about your often-discussed “commie corridor” – did backing for Mamdani overwhelming in those parts of the boroughs?

In my view existed some weakening of the commie corridor in certain places like Astoria or Greenpoint that have more older white ethnic folks. In Astoria, instance, the property owners and residents supported the independent. So there was a little resistance. But overall, mostly the commie corridor is another huge reason why Zohran won – he was polling between high percentages in specific neighborhoods.

Jewish Voters

Prior to the election there was coverage on whether the candidate was gaining ground with the community. Is there any suggestion that he did?

Exist neighborhoods with many secular and more progressive-leaning Jews – such as specific locales – where he performed strongly. However in the wealthy Jewish communities such as the Manhattan area, his Middle East stance definitely mattered in those places. Similarly in the moderate communities like Queens neighborhoods, or Spuyten Duyvil and Riverdale – they all leaned the independent. Plus, you have Jewish immigrants from the former Soviet Union in southern Brooklyn, they were pretty staunchly supportive. So it’s unclear if there were major surprises here, but Mamdani did hold more progressive Jewish neighborhoods and including sections of the another locale with large leads.

Long-Term Significance

Did Mamdani redefine what the city represents in politics? Will the progressive base become a launch pad for progressive contenders?

Yes, it’s no coincidence that some of the biggest political leaders from the left come from a handful of neighborhoods in the boroughs. I believe that there will be additional examples – candidates will emerge from these neighborhoods to be promoted to higher office.

However I believe that every city in America can have similar progressive hubs. Urban places are the centers of leftwing power in America – since youth reside there, tenancy is common and they represent locales where people are crushed by the inequalities exist.