War-torn Burma Goes to the Polls in Widely Criticised Political Theater.

Myanmar is going to the polls in a electoral process widely dismissed as a farce, with key opposition groups banned, numerous figures imprisoned and a significant portion of the country unlikely to vote because of an ongoing internal conflict.

A Phased Ballot Amid War

The ruling junta is holding a phased ballot nearly half a decade after it seized power in a takeover, which sparked widespread opposition and spiralled into a civil war.

Observers say the military regime, with backing from Beijing, is seeking to legitimise and entrench its power as it seeks a way out of the devastating stalemate.

"There are no conditions for the practice of the freedoms of free speech, association or peaceful protest," UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk said.

Over two hundred people have been prosecuted for disrupting or criticising the polls under a recently enacted legislation which carries severe punishments, including the possibility of execution.

Director Mike Tee, performer Kyaw Win Htut and entertainer Ohn Daing were among the well-known individuals found guilty under the law, which was passed in July. They were each handed a prison sentence of seven years after criticising a film promoting the elections.

Immense Challenges and Coercion

Civilians are "facing pressure from all sides," Mr Türk noted in a statement, adding that armed rebel groups have issued their own threats urging people to boycott the polls.

The military has been engaged on several fronts, against both pro-democracy fighters who reject the coup, as well as ethnic armed organisations which have their own militias. It lost control of large parts of the country in a string of defeats, but clawed back territory this year following sustained aerial bombardment made possible through support from Beijing and Moscow.

All of this and the fact that significant regions of the country are still under rebel administration presents a huge logistical challenge for conducting an election.

A Restricted Poll

Voting is set to take place in three rounds over the next month in two hundred and seventy-four of the country's 330 townships, with the remainder deemed not secure enough. Results are expected by late January.

There is unlikely to be any voting in as much as one half of the country. Even in the townships that are voting, some districts will go to the polls, making it challenging to forecast a likely turnout.

A handful of parties, including the junta-supported Union Solidarity and Development Party, are running nominees nationwide, while another 51 parties and non-aligned contenders will contest only at the state or regional levels.

Approximately forty groups, including Aung San Suu Kyi's National League of Democracy, which scored decisive wins in 2015 and 2020, have been banned. Suu Kyi and a number of the party's key leaders have been imprisoned under charges widely condemned as fabricated, while others are in exile.

Criticism and Rejection

"Through dividing the vote into stages, the junta can adjust tactics if the results in the first phase do not go their way," commented Htin Kyaw Aye, a representative of the election-monitoring group Spring Sprouts.

Nations in the West, including the United Kingdom and the EU legislature, have dismissed the vote as a pretence, while neighbouring group Asean has urged political dialogue to precede any election.

The Myanmar regime has dismissed criticism of the polls, maintaining that it aims to "return [the country] to a democracy with multiple parties".

"This vote is being held for our nation. It is being held for the citizens of Myanmar. It is not intended for the outside world," a junta spokesman told a briefing last week.

Military leader Min Aung Hlaing cautioned earlier this week that those who refuse to vote are turning their back on "progress toward democracy".